Government losing precious foreign exchange

By HH Mohrmen

The Tamabil Dawki Land Custom Station (LCS) in the Amlarem sub-division of Jaintia hills district is a major land port and one of the oldest in the Northeast. With coal and limestone being the main products of the district it is not surprising that the major exports of India through the Tamabil Dawki LCS are the above minerals. The sad fact is that government is losing millions of dollars in foreign exchange exporting coal to Bangladesh from this port. A surprise visit to the port made one realize the truth that exporting minerals particularly coal has not benefited the state exchequer but only the exporters. In the process the state is losing huge amounts in foreign exchange and taxes. It is pertinent to examine these facts while the country is celebrating the golden jubilee of the Central Customs Act, 1962.

The state exchequers of both state and central government are made poorer in the process of exporting minerals from the District and this happens in broad day light. The officials of both the central and the state government turn a Nelson’s eye to what goes on at the port. This scribe visited Tamabil on December 7, 2011 and interviewed some of the truck drivers. One Leaderwell Dkhar said that the actual load the truck carries is 16 tons but when asked to produce documents for exporting coal to Bangladesh, the papers from the Meghalaya Directorate of Mineral Resources including receipts from the weighbridge shows that the truck carries a shipment of 9 tons only.

Another driver S. Dhar confided that the truck he drives carried 18 tons and some even claimed that they carry 20 tons but in paper all the trucks which pass through the Tamabil land custom stations are certified to be carrying 9 tons only as per the orders of the Supreme Court. The question is what happens to the excess coal exported to Bangladesh which does not appear in the books? The weight of the excess coal which is between 7 to 8 tons per truck passes through the port right in front of the nose of the police and the customs officials.

When asked by this scribe why the trucks were allowed entry despite violating the SC orders of the 9 tons limit, the answer I got was interesting. The policeman and Customs official who check the trucks before they proceed towards Bangladesh replied that their duty is only to check whether the trucks have all their papers in order and not to weigh the trucks. B Nongbri Customs officer in charge the Land Customs Station in Dawki (because the Superintendent M K Brahma is out of station) clarified that the duty of the Customs office is to facilitate trade through the port and also to ensure that no contraband is smuggled into India. When asked if he is aware of the Supreme Court order which prohibits trucks from carrying loads of more than 9 tons, Nongbri answered in the affirmative, but added that it is the duty of the District Administration to see the trucks are not overloaded beyond the permissible limit.

Trucks transporting minerals from this port, particularly coal are not only violating Court orders but the trade has brought a huge loss to the country in the form of foreign exchange. Nongbri also said that India is selling coal to Bangladesh at the rate of 50 US$ per ton and the average number of trucks passing through the Tamabil port is 450 trucks per day. Only 9 tons of coal per trucks is legally exported to Bangladesh with proper documents. The question is what happens to the excess coal which does not appear in any document? What happens to the 7 or 8 tons of coal per truck which is not accounted for? If one is to use a simple calculation to estimate the lost in foreign exchange from the illicit act, it will accrue to the tune of 157500 US$ (one hundred fifty seven and five hundred thousand dollars) per day. The calculation is arrived at by taking into account that only 7 tons of coal is carried in excess by each truck and according to the Customs officer the number of truck exporting coal to Bangladesh is average 450 trucks per day. At the cost of 50 US $ per ton, the total amount of foreign exchange lost comes to more than one hundred fifty thousand US$ per day, per month the loss in revenue to the central government in the form of foreign exchange is approximately 4725000 US$ ( 4.72 million US$) and if the amount is converted to rupees (@ of Rs. 45 to a $ it will come to the Rs. 21,26,25000 (Rs 21.26 crores per month). No wonder Tamabil Dawki does not appear in the list of the LCS which earns forex for the country.

Each exporter is issued a letter of credit of 100 tons. For every letter of credit and the cost of coal per ton as per letter of credit is 50 US$, but informed source disclosed that in the real trade coal is sold at the rate of 150-160 US$ per ton. Even on the 9 tons coal as appeared in paper, the rate at which coal is sold in Bangladesh is much higher than the rate specified in the letter of credit. Here again the question is how the excess money which does not appear in black and white, changes hands from the importer to the exporter? Talking of hawala and black money, there is so much of that is happening in Dawki.

A former exporter (who requested anonymity) revealed that sometimes the importers pay the excess amount illegally in rupees through the driver of the truck and sometimes the exchange is in gold. The exporter said that coal export from Tamabil Dawki started since the early eighties. Which means that the illegal practice of overloading trucks beyond the permissible limit has been going on for more than three decades! Hence, the amount of coal exported to Bangladesh from this port is more than what appears in paper. On December 8, a vernacular paper carried the news of trucks exporting coal from Tamabil land customs station to Bangladesh violating the Supreme Court order. A few days later the Customs office stopped the export of coal via this port. More than 700 trucks were stranded on the national highway 40 (E) because the Customs officials refused to allow any trucks carrying more than the permissible limit to pass through the port. In the evening of December 11 this journalist spoke to M K Brahma Superintendent of Customs Tamabil Dawki, and asked him the reason why the trucks were stranded. Brahma informed that his office has asked the trucks to unload the excess amount and his office will not allow trucks carrying more than 9 tons to pass through the Dawki port. Next day this writer again called M K Brahma and was informed that arrangement has been made with the exporters and their overloaded trucks were allowed to pass on condition that from the next Monday the Customs office will maintain strict vigil so that no trucks carrying more than 9 tons will be allowed to pass through this port. Instead, now, truck drivers are pressured by the exporter to carry 20 or more tons per trip.

The State of Meghalaya is also losing revenue in the form of royalty collected from coal produced by the state. Royalty from minerals produced by the state is shared between the state government and Jaintia Hills Autonomous District Council in the ratio of 60:40. The state is collecting royalty of Rs. 290 (rupees two hundred ninety) per ton from coal exported from the District, but thanks to the illicit connivance of the government officials, the state is losing royalty of Rs. 2030 (rupees two thousand thirty) per truck from the 7 tons excess weight carried by every truck which does not appear in paper.

It is also ironic that a port which trades hundreds and thousands of dollars per day does even have a proper weigh bridge. Till date the measurement in done in archaic volume metric or cubic meter system that too in Bangladesh and not in India. Former exporters informed that till 1997 both the exporters and the importers conducted a joint measurement to ascertain the weight of the consignment and this continues in the Borsara LCS till date, but for reasons best know to the government officials in the port, the process was discontinued.

The export of minerals particularly coal from Tamabil Dawki Land Custom Station is in complete disarray. The government both at the state and the Centre should do something immediately to address this problem and solve the quagmire.

http://theshillongtimes.com/2012/02/06/government-losing-precious-foreign-exchange/

Countdown for a clean and fair election has begun

By HH Mohrmen

No sooner did we turn the pages of our calendar to 2012 when parties in the State too started to sound their trumpets of war for the state assembly. But for the first time in the history of the state, apart from the usual inter-party fight for victory in every constituency, this coming election will also be fought at another level of the battlefield. Even before the final war bugle is trumpeted, soldiers are all geared up for the showdown to fight for their respective battlefields. But the battle that will be interesting to watch is the battle against the use of money power during the elections.

While political parties are busy selecting candidates for the 60 seats in the State legislative assembly another group of people with or with no political affiliation are ready to fight against the use of money to influence the voters’ decision in the next election. In one of my earlier articles I had commended Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit’s Clean Politics Campaign (CPC) and quite a few people were against it. The general view is that people supported the move the CPC has taken. Their only reservation is that it is being led by Basaiawmoit a politician affiliated to a regional party. I responded by asking them a counter question: “Do we have anyone else who is willing take the lead in the fight against the invisible and powerful ghost?” I further added that while it is very important to have the right leader for any movement to succeed, but the goal or rather the cause for which the movement is called for is more important and to me leadership issue is secondary.

The point is that those who wish to see change in the politics of the state and who are willing to contribute their time and energy for the cause must join hands and stay united for the cause. It goes without saying that to have a cleaner state politics after 2013, we need to change the way elections are contested among the parties because elections will decide the next 5 years for Meghalaya. It is for the people to decide what they want to see in the coming 5 years rather than allow the game to be played at will without anyone to referee the match that is to bring change; so let the public be the referee for the match.

In my humble observation the Election Commission and the observers that it deputes to oversee electioneering can do very little to officiate the match. For starters they cannot in few days learn the tricks of the trade (meaning the way the election game is being played here). The observers may be top ranking IAS officers but they must surely know that elections are different from one state to another. More over it is a new playground for the referees and in many cases these referees stay put in the government circuit houses of different district headquarters and seldom visit any place other than the office of the Deputy Commissioner. Hence the expectation that Election Observers deputed by the EC would play effective adjudicators is next to impossible. No matter how many observers are posted and no matter how many video cameras the election offices uses during the campaign period, the election can be clean and fair only when people participate in the process. Right now the Commission is only encouraging the people to the participate in the election by ensuring that they use their right to vote, but for a fair a clean election we need to encourage people to move to another level and that is to be involved in the process of having a clean and fair election.

We need to make people understand that it not enough to merely vote in the election and make sure the process goes off peacefully. For successful democracy we need to make sure that the election is fair and clean and allow a level playing field for everyone and that power lies in the hands of the people. It is here that we need organizations like the CPC and I am sure the more we have such organization the better it will be; because the area that needs to be covered is huge and time is very limited. The goal is to make sure the call for a fair and clean election percolates down to the last voter in the villages. Unlike the politicians who have all the resources needed and unlimited time at their disposal, the voluntary activists don’t have that luxury. Hence the need to rope in any willing volunteers on board the battle ship.

The abuse of power by the Rangbah Shnong during election is another reason why I have my own reservations about the institution. People should exercise their right to bring put this to a halt. Almost all leaders in the village desire to be Rangbah Shnong during election time and there is a big reason for that. During elections Rangbah Shnong in most villages command a price for supporting any candidate. There are cases that I know where candidates provided the RS with huge amounts of money to serve tea and snacks (and what have you ) to the villagers during the elections and the candidates make sure the flow of money is continued lest the RS changes his mind. Then the RS are also used by the candidates as canvassers to give an impression to the audience that the candidates command a majority in the village.

Some candidates provide the RS with a vehicle for all the 20 odd days to canvass for them and the RS goes on a canvassing spree as if he has authority of the dorbar. Some RS even have the audacity to claim that he has the entire village in his pocket. The people should put a stop to this and make sure that the institution of RS is not abused and if the person canvasses it should be on his personal capacity as an individual. The office of RS should remain independence to enable the RS to be a real umpire in the village during election time. Our own JFK (to borrow bah Paul’s acronym) and his grand council has a lot of work to do if the archaic institution is to remain relevant in the contemporary times. Bah JFK also has a personal experience in the last MP election ironically with the very institution, the cause for which he spends his time to advocate for. It was alleged that the dorbar shnong of one village in Jaintia Hills had rigged the election in the village in favour of the victorious candidate.

Once bitten twice shy, JFK should learn from the mistake and organize the traditional institutions and against their misuse during election and thereby ensure that similar incidents do not recur. The grand council of chiefs should make sure that the dorbar shnong do not announce the village’s entire support to a certain candidate because it is not only undemocratic to do so; it is also a case of misusing the traditional institution.

If we are to have a fair and clean election in 2013, everyone has a role to play and the Election Commission should also make good use of the services of movements like the CPC, other NGOs and even individuals who are willing to volunteer their time and energy for the cause. We must impress upon the people that rather than dancing to the tune of the politician in the “once in every 5 years tamasha”, it is time that we take a stand and stop the tamasha for good.

(The writer is a research scholar and an environmental activist)

http://theshillongtimes.com/2012/01/23/countdown-for-a-clean-and-fair-election-has-begun/

JHADC mistaking a shrub for a forest

By HH Mohrmen

In one sentence the recent finding of the High Level Committee probing into the allegation that cement plants in the Narpuh area of Khliehriat Sub Division were set up in a forested land in contravention of the Forest Conservation Act is nothing but a case of the officers and staff of the Jaintia Hills Autonomous District Council and the State Forest Department mistaking a shrub for a forest. But not everyone is convinced that the blame should rest entirely be on the two Forest Departments. The role of the Single Window Agency should also be questioned but the most important question is the timing that both the opposition and government chose to raise this important issue. With the Meghalaya Right to Information Movement (MRTIM) coming up with hard evidence pertaining to the issue, the most important question is whether there is more to all this than meets the eye.

The findings of the HPC have only validated the argument that local environmentalists have all along pointed out – that the setting up of cement plants in the area is illegal in the first place. Not only that plants were started in a forested area by clearing huge forests, (including reserved forests in some cases) but the most important issue is that the mining sites which these companies have acquired through nefarious means is also covered with thick sub-tropical forests. A large part of the limestone and clay rich land in the elaka Narpuh is now in the hands of the cement companies and almost all the lands are still covered with green forests.

The question is not only about cement companies mining in mineral-rich lands without clearing the forests but how the cement company which is a non-tribal entity could procure land in the tribal areas in the first place. The role of the officers and staffs of the forest department of the District Council and the State Forest Department is crucial since the authority to confirm whether the industries and the mining sites are in the forest land or not is bestowed on the two departments. Obviously the report the two forest departments provided is that the cement plants and mine sites were not in the forested area. In most cases these agencies pass off the proposed land as covered with shrubs and not forest. The other vital point that this writer in particular has pointed out is that most of these plants are located within the radius of 5 KM from the Narpuh Reserved Forest which seriously violates the Forest act.

These agencies are largely to be blamed for providing false information and government should conduct an inquiry to find out if any of the officials and staff of the Forest Departments of both the District Council and the state have acquired assets disproportionate to their known sources of income.

A large part of the forest area in elaka Narpuh falls under the un-classed forest category as per information collected, but during the last ten or fifteen years all these lands have been allotted to the near and dear ones of those in power in the District Council. More importantly people would like to know what the role of the Meghalaya State Pollution Control Board is in this whole issue. The Board is like a lame duck; at time it looks like the role of the Board is to cater to the whims of the companies only because it only comes in the picture when a public hearing is to be conducted. As for the test conducted by the Board on the discoloring and mass death of fishes in Lukha River, even experts in the area in the NEHU are not convinced by the results of the finding.

Is it right to blame the departments and the board only for the entire cement plant imbroglio in Jaintia Hills? What about the Single Window Agency (SWA)? Let us assume that those in the SWA are not familiar with the environment laws. Still the question is can the SWA issue licenses for starting of 8 cement plants in the area within the 10 KM radius? Does it not occur to those in the helm of affairs of the SWA that they are creating an environmental catastrophe in the area by allowing 8 cement plants to come up in one place at the same time? Who are the members of the SWA when the licenses for setting up of the cement plants were issued? Are they not as guilty as the forest departments?

The SWA obviously is not concerned about environment sustainability, and elaka Narpuh and Lumchnong villages in particular are losing the most exotic caves in the state to mining. Krem Kotsati-Umlawan cave system and 11 other caves in the area are in the verge of extinction due to rampant mining in the area. Krem Kotsati-Umlawan system also figures in the list of the longest and deepest caves in India. Krem Kotsati-Umlawan (21, 530 metres) and Krem Synrang Pamiang (14, 157 metres) are the second and third longest caves in the country respectively. Again in the list of the deepest caves in the country, Krem Synrang Pamiang 317 metres in depth is the deepest while Krem Kotsati-Umlawan 215 metres deep is the third deepest cave in the country (Source, Natures Exotic gift: the caves of Meghalaya, published by Directorate of Information & Public Relations, Government of Meghalaya). The SWA failed to take into consideration these important factors before issuing licenses to the companies to set up plants in the area.

The timing of the HPC report is also questionable. It seems like the Government and the Opposition had learned the trick of some of the NGO in the Khliehriat sub division which is closely in wait for the cement companies to make a false move, then create an issue out of it and make it public. After the companies come to terms with their demands, the NGOs will retreat and the issue will die a natural death. That is why we have all kinds of NGOs in the Khliehriat area; NGOs which are not found anywhere else are hyper active in the Khliehriat Sub division. If the government is really not only making an issue of the cement companies illegal presence in the area because the election is round the corner, then the Government and the Opposition should see to it that the issue comes to a logical conclusion before the election is announced. The government should see to it that the law of the land takes it own course and those found guilty are punished. If both the government and opposition cannot close the issue before the election then it gives the people ample freedom to suspect that they too had followed the NGOs’ footsteps.

On a lighter note, the argument of Pankaj Kejriwal, Executive Director of CMCL that cement industries have not violated the Forest act (ST January, 13, 2012) reminds me of an incident I was told which happened in Delhi a decade or so ago when the JHADC tried to convince the Supreme Court that forest cover in the District is intact and that therefore it should be exempted from the Supreme Court’s blanket bandh of timber logging without any concrete evidence. The JHADC representatives had to return embattled from Delhi when remote sensing images of forest area in the District which proved otherwise were placed on the table for everybody to verify.

It is sad that some people play politics with the environment when all of us breathe the same air and require to conserve the same eco-system that sustains life.

(The writer is a research scholar and environment activist)

http://theshillongtimes.com/2012/01/16/jhadc-mistaking-a-shrub-for-a-forest/

Technology and the future of news dissemination

By HH Mohrmen

What is history if it does not even serve to remind us of the past and teach us how to live in the future? The year that was has indeed proved how emerging media tools have changed the way people share news and information and has even proved to be useful tools for people to organize themselves and start agitations against the powers that be. I hope this write-up will enlighten us about the new media technology that is available now and how to make the best use of it.

As an eight year old boy I still remember an incident when a Bengali grocery shop owner in the Iawmusiang market of Jowai whom the locals called Makhon (Ajoy Lywait’s father) stepped out of the old DC’s office with an old Philips radio in his hand to share the news of the general election in 1975 which he translated from Hindi to Pnar; not that I remember any of the news that he translated; but that image is still fresh in my mind. I first heard an LP disc player in our neighbours house and few years later my late uncle Iahnam Mohrmen returned from his native village Nongtalang with a Panasonic two-in-one (radio and cassette tape recorder) which was illegally brought from across the border. Well, during those days everything foreign and good only came from across the border. We made the maximum use of the tape recorder but hardly used the radio which comes along with the player except to listen to the evening Pnar news of All India Radio, Shillong. Later on the Japanese came up with a smaller version of a cassette tape recorder which the owner can put in his pocket. That was the walkman.

Then it was the advent of the Television and the first television show we watched in Jowai was a programme telecast by the Bangla TV. Knight Rider was the most popular serial then. Was it during the World Cup 1984 that football enthusiasts from Shillong took their TV lock stock and barrel to the Dawki area only to watch the World Cup Final using our generous neighbour’s airwaves? I look back and realize that these entire fancy entertainment medium came to us in the span of a decade or so. For a few years people had to be satisfied with the programme telecast by our national broadcaster the Doordarshan and the other option was to put up an antennae on a high pole; hopefully to get the Bangla TV programme and the higher the pole the better the reception would be.

Then it was the time of the VCP and VCR and home entertainment begun in a big way. With the ushering of VCR, VCP and video cameras people have even started experiencing with making their own videos especially of weddings and birthdays. If my memory serves me right it was in the early nineties that the people of Shillong had their first taste of Cable TV, and like they say the rest is history. Once cable network started coming up in different parts of the city, TV took over the entertainment business and made cinema halls, VCP, VCR and even VCD which came later redundant. Cinema hall business started going downhill and very soon many had to close shop. With the coming of cable TV networks the owners started covering local news and broadcasting them on their networks.

We are here now enjoying digital quality of Cable TV programme and digital TV rules the roost but for how long? Simultaneously, people have started using cell phones and the mobile phone technology had change so fast that in the span of a year or two users had the option of sticking to their old black and white set or to switch to a colour set. Then mobile phone sets started becoming fancy tools; first we had radios and the torchlight added to a mobile phone set, then a calculator, a music player, a camera followed by a video camera, GPS tool, internet tools and what have you. And now we are in the era of iphones and smart phones and the era of 3G and 4G spectrums as they call it.

In the early nineties people also started using computer but I personally, first saw a computer at the BDPS institute in Dhanketi Shillong sometime between the years 1986-87. I had the first opportunity to touch or rather to play pool games on my friend’s computer in the year 1989 while I was in Manchester England. In the year 1989-90 internet was not even available in England but car phones were the must have of the yuppies. A decade later I was able to use the internet and at least use it to read the newspaper and since then the computer and internet have gone through their own evolutionary processes.

Then computer has become smaller but faster and stronger with a variety of software to help people make the best use of the machine. It is not the intention of this write-up to dwell on what one can do with the machine but rather on the evolution of the machine and the convergence of the many tools that we now use separately into one. The evolution of a Computer started from a machine of the size of a room, to a desk top, lap top, to notepad and now to ipads and tablets and it is not the end yet.

When we talk about media, we realize that the medium of disseminating news too has undergone a sea change. The radio gave way to newspaper and television and television and newspaper is now giving way to internet. For so long breaking news is associated with television only, but now the television news corp has a competition from an unlikely competitor – the internet. Nowadays, you don’t need a newspaper to publish your work; there are blogs where one can share one’s writings and even pictures and videos and then there are micro-blogs like Twitter and Facebook. For instance the news of the Seal attack on Osama Bin Laden’s hideout was first shared on Twitter and when the television news channel broke the news, Tweeter users only nodded and remarked “yea we know.” Some news either hit Twitter or Facebook before mainstream media could even break it. Obviously the next generation of news dissemination will be at a personal level. We have heard of terms like ‘citizen journalist’ where a citizen at his own level broadcasts news that he thinks worth sharing and social media will only serve the purpose. Now everybody can become a citizen journalist and the best part is that they would not depend on a newspaper/magazine or even news channel to broadcast the news. One can even share videos of any quality on the internet by uploading it on Youtube and many more sites that allow one to do so. Thanks to the internet again, now anybody with a simple video camera can even live-stream any event, and any person anywhere in the world will be able to enjoy the event -live. In the near future all the tools available now like the smartphone, iphone, ipad and tablets will converge into one to enable us to enjoy and share news and information like we never did before. Very soon technology will change the way we call each other, with the advent of 3G and 4G technology and with the phones that we use video calls will be easier and cheaper and then it will be RIP to the way we call each other now.

Thanks to the rapid development of information technology and the fast evolution of the tools that we use to share and disseminate news, we are in for an exciting explosion of news and information in the future, like they say – the sky is the limit.

(The writer is a social thinker and an environment activist)

http://theshillongtimes.com/2012/01/09/technology-and-the-future-of-news-dissemination/

Looking forward to politically active 2012

By HH Mohrmen

For the whole of last week I suffered from writer’s block and had to ponder hard about what to write on the first day of the year. It was like being on a hillock and staring at an open space waiting for a train of ideas to come down on me. December was a hectic month because apart from contributing regular weekly columns to this paper I have also been asked to contribute to other publications. I was running out of ideas because no matter how deeply I tried to contemplate my mind is still blank.

Nevertheless, a writer has a commitment and a deadline that cannot be missed so here I am. Whenever I think of the New Year (2012), the only thought that repeatedly comes to my mind are scenes from the movie 2012. According to this movie, 2012 is supposed to be the year of the Armageddon, the year when the world as we know it will end but that is not the point of this write-up. The year 2012 is going to be the most important year for Meghalaya because it is the pre-election year for the state; it will be the year when regional parties which have been defunct for the last five years will receive a new lease of life and resurface. The year can also be the beginning of the end for at least some political parties in the state.

Thanks to the fact that election is becoming such an extremely expensive process, regional parties like Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP), the All Party Hills Leaders Conference, the anti merger faction of Khun Hynniewtrep Awakening Movement (KHNAM) and even the Hills State Peoples’ Democratic Party (HSPDP) will find it tough going to enter into the election fray in 2013. The fact of the matter is that any party or candidate who wishes to contest the election needs to have a huge bank balance. So can 2012 spell doom for the fringe regional parties? In the current political scenario the only reason for small regional parties to exist is to cash in from a hung assembly. Another reason that the leaders of these parties want to remain afloat is to keep the flag of the party flying even though it means having to field only few candidates in the election.

Then we have National Parties like the Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) and even regional parties with aspirations to be national parties like the Trinamool Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and even Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). These will test the political waters in the State and set up candidates in the next election. But new parties will find it difficult to woo the State’s voters. The people of Meghalaya took several years to accept even the Congress party; it will take more than mere entering the election fray for new non-regional parties to have any impact in the State’s political landscape.

With the small regional parties and the other national parties not expecting to make any impact in the 2013 election to the state assembly, we are left with just three main contenders for power in the next election, the Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP). While the Congress and the UDP are bed fellows in the current political dispensation in the state, the NCP is in fact the only opposition party in the state assembly. Will the NCP be able to make the best use of the anti incumbency issue that is going to stare the MUA in the face? The prospect of NCP being able to improve on its status from that of 2008 depends largely on the party’s ability to make inroads in the Khasi Jaintia Hills District in the 2013 election. So 2012 will be a very crucial year for the party. The NCP has much to do this year to build the party in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills Districts. It seems the party’s problem is not in its near absence in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills; rather the NCP’s predicament is from what is brewing in its own turf in Garo Hills. The trouble which started with the GHADC imbroglio, in which the party’s MDCs joined the Congress party en-mass to form an Executive Committee in the council seems to continue unabated.

Then the UDP’s hope to fool people by trying to lay claim only for the good things that are happening in the MUA and to blame the Congress for everything else is not going to help the party. If the Congress goes down; its partner will follow suit because it take two hands to clap. Even the much talked about merger of the KHNAM with the party will have a very little impact on the voters other than the media hype that it has created. KHNAM is a spent force anyway because the party since its inception has failed to make any impact elsewhere in the state other than in the East Khasi hills District. To be able to come up in a big way in the next election, the party needs to improve on its performance in Jaintia Hills District from where the party drew a blank in the last election and the Garo Hills Districts where the party’s support base has shifted allegiance to the NCP.

The Congress party’s prospects would have been better if it is not for the intra-party wrangling that has wasted the better part of the last two years. The Congress’ fate in the ensuing election depends on the party’s ability to convince people that it will not repeat similar mistake after the 2013 election. The Congress will only be able to solve the leadership issue if it comes up with a Chief Ministerial candidate, but is that possible in the Congress now? The party is equally poised in both the Garo Hills Districts and the Khasi and Jaintia Hills Districts, but it’s fate depends on how good or bad the other two parties perform. If NCP improves its position in the Garo Hills Districts that will have a drastic impact on the Congress party’s prospect and if the UDP position improves in the Khasi Jaintia Hills, that will be bad news for the Congress. In the triangular fight for power in the State Assembly one hopes that it is not too early to predict that the state is yet again headed for another hung assembly.

(The writer is a researcher and enviro-nmental activist)

http://theshillongtimes.com/2012/01/03/looking-forward-to-politically-active-2012/